British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has managed to avoid a wipeout in key elections, but his governing Conservatives did suffer some setbacks in the recent polls. The votes, held on July 20,

2023, were crucial as they represented one of the final electoral tests before the expected general election next year, offering a glimpse into the prospects of the two main parties.

One of the notable outcomes was the Conservatives losing two strategically important parliamentary seats. The opposition Labour Party scored a significant victory in the by-election for the Selby and Ainsty constituency, securing its largest by-election win since World War Two. Additionally, the Conservatives faced another crushing defeat in another vote. However, there was a surprising twist as they narrowly managed to retain Boris Johnson's former seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip by fewer than 500 votes.

For Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, this close win in Uxbridge was a huge relief, as it spared him from becoming the first British leader in over half a century to lose three by-elections on a single day. Sunak, a former finance minister and investment banker, has been striving to restore the Conservatives' credibility after a series of scandals led to Boris Johnson's resignation last year and his successor, Liz Truss, stepping down after just six weeks.

The governing Conservatives have been grappling with various challenges, including high inflation, economic stagnation, rising taxes and mortgage rates, industrial unrest, and long waiting times in the state-run health service. Consequently, they were prepared for the possibility of losing all three by-elections on Thursday.

National opinion polls indicate that the Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour party by 20 points, suggesting that they might fail to secure a fifth consecutive general election victory. However, the result in Uxbridge highlights that Labour's lead in the polls may not necessarily translate into a clear parliamentary majority.

Political analysts, including Britain's renowned pollster John Curtice, believe that based on Labour's performance in Uxbridge, a hung parliament is the most likely outcome in the upcoming general election, which must be held by January 2025. The Conservatives still have a long way to go before they can be considered serious contenders to retain power after the next general election.

In the aftermath of these election results, both party leaders have been left with important considerations. While the Conservatives continue to lose voters in southern areas, Labour's lead in the polls is being questioned for its potential fragility.

Looking ahead, Prime Minister Sunak is expected to reshuffle his senior ministers soon as he assembles his team to contest the next general election. The outgoing defense minister, Ben Wallace, anticipates that these changes might take place in the coming days or the first week of September. Photo by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, Wikimedia commons.